ABC News' current delegate estimate has [Sen. Barack] Obama at 1,555.CBS News' delegate counts, by the way, have Obama at 1,550 and Clinton at 1,441.
That means he would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.
Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024. (ABC News currently has her at 1449.)
So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination.
No matter what the numbers are, a longer primary does three things:
1) Splits the party while GOP nominee-elect John McCain plots strategy, raises money and takes jabs at them both.
2) Raises fears of a brokered convention and the spectre of the 2000 vote fight, splitting the party further.
3) Makes the Dems wish they hadn't booted Michigan and Florida out of the contest. I hear rumbling Florida may hold a do-over primary. If it keeps the nomination from coming down to superdelegates, more power to them.
And let's not forget the super-superdelegate: John Edwards. He's still holding 26 delegates. With only about 100 delegates separating Hillary and Barack, he won't be able to sit on the fence.
Next month's Pennsylvania primary becomes the new Super Tuesday, and if this contest isn't settled after that, you better have plenty of Maalox ready.
A college of mine joked last year that if nobody had enough delegates at the Democratic convention, it would clear the way for Al Gore to walk on as nominee -- only I don't think he was joking. Please, don't make this more of a nightmare for them than it already is.
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